We live in a world where we are asked to make predictions.
Investors expect businesses to predict revenue and expenditures.
We expect industry leaders to predict how innovation will change their industries.
I expect my husband to predict what I want to eat.
We all gaze into that semi-informed crystal ball and more times than not; the ball is wrong. In fact, with hindsight, many predictions are downright comical.
One of my favorite examples of this is a 2005 quote from Howard Schultz in an article discussing Starbuck’s “strategic” move into the music business:
“We believe there is the ability to create the physical analog to what Apple and iTunes have done on the web, to have a substantial library of digital music that could be physically digitized and burned in a retail environment.”
Just a few years later Starbucks largely exited the music business. Today, most music is consumed digitally and there isn’t a single mention of “music” in Starbuck’s 2017 10K.
Like so many other predictions, this one didn’t pan out. However, to survive and grow, we all have to continue to make predictions, which is why I’d like all Candid readers to join forces to create an epic list of 2019 predictions.
This time next year, we can laugh at what we sincerely thought to be true, but later turned out to be comically wrong. I’ll share the full list next week.
Uber will beat Lyft to IPO in 2019. They have to because Lyft is by far the better company.
2019 will be annoying for the O’Rourkes. Beto O’Rourke is going to announce his run for president, and I’ll get asked in every meeting if I’m related. The answer is “no” as far as I know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s distantly related to my husband as they look very similar.
In the last three months of 2019, there will be a major market correction.
Cash pay, direct to consumer healthcare models that get around traditional payer/provider contracting are going to make a lot of headway.
My VIP scooter empire is going to go belly up, but not without an epic run.
Simba and Nala will be the two most popular dog names as the live action Lion King remake will be the highest grossing movie of all time.
I’m going to lay out the case for why private equity is ripe for disruption, and most of you will buy into it.
I will be wrong about at least 80% of these predictions. If I’m wrong about everything, I’ll at least have this one.
Send me your predictions for 2019! No prediction is insignificant or too “out there.” I want them all.
This is my last real newsletter until 2019. Happy Holidays, Merry New Year, and have a great weekend!